A Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Diagnostics in Nigerian Transport Maintenance Depot Systems (2000–2026)

{ "background": "Maintenance depot systems are critical for transport infrastructure reliability, yet their operational efficiency in developing economies is poorly quantified. Existing assessments often lack predictive capacity for long-term planning and resource allocation.", "purpose and objectives": "This Data Descriptor presents a novel methodological framework for constructing and validating a time-series forecasting model to diagnose efficiency trends in transport maintenance depots. The objective is to provide a replicable tool for measuring historical and projected efficiency gains.", "methodology": "The methodology integrates autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling with data envelopment analysis (DEA) scores. The core forecasting model is specified as \Δ Yt = \α + \∑i=1ᵖ\ \Δ Yt-i + \∑j=1q\ \εt-j + \, where Yₜ represents the composite efficiency score. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood, with robust standard errors calculated to account for heteroskedasticity.", "findings": "The model forecasts a positive but decelerating trend in aggregate depot efficiency over the forecast horizon, with projected gains plateauing after an initial period of improvement. A key specific result is a forecasted mean efficiency increase of approximately 18.5% over the full series, with a 95% prediction interval indicating significant uncertainty in later periods due to exogenous economic factors.", "conclusion": "The developed model provides a robust, evidence-based tool for diagnosing efficiency pathways in maintenance systems. It successfully translates historical performance data into a structured forecast, highlighting both potential gains and systemic vulnerabilities.", "recommendations": "Implement the model for periodic depot performance reviews. Future work should integrate real-time operational data to transition from periodic to continuous diagnostic forecasting.", "key words": "infrastructure maintenance, efficiency diagnostics, time-series forecasting, ARIMA modelling, transport engineering, predictive analytics", "contribution statement": "This paper introduces a novel hybrid ARIMA-DEA methodology for the