Identifying Domestic Drivers of Volatility in Busan Port Container Throughput: A VECM-Based IRF–FEVD Approach

This study analyses the dynamic relationship between Busan Port container throughput (BCT) and Korea's domestic macroeconomic variables—the all-industry production index (KAIP), consumer price index (KCPI), and the KRW/USD exchange rate (KER)—using monthly data (2013–2023) and a VECM framework. All series are I(1) and cointegrated. Accumulated impulse responses indicate a statistically significant positive cumulative effect of KAIP shocks on BCT and a significant negative effect of exchange rate shocks, while the CPI effect is comparatively weak. Variance decomposition shows that KAIP explains the largest share of BCT fluctuations, with the contribution of KER rising over time. The findings suggest that Busan Port throughput is particularly sensitive to domestic real activity and exchange rate movements, implying that demand forecasting and risk monitoring should prioritise production and exchange rate indicators.