Randomised Field Trial of a Diagnostic Framework for Municipal Infrastructure Asset Risk Reduction in Uganda

{ "background": "Municipal infrastructure in many developing nations faces systemic challenges in asset management, leading to accelerated degradation and service failures. Current diagnostic approaches often lack structured, field-validated frameworks for prioritising risk mitigation interventions. ", "purpose and objectives": "This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a novel diagnostic framework for reducing asset risk in municipal infrastructure systems through a randomised field trial. The primary objective was to quantify the framework's impact on measured risk scores compared to conventional practice. ", "methodology": "A cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted across 42 municipal districts. Intervention districts applied the new diagnostic framework, which integrates technical condition, socio-economic criticality, and institutional capacity into a composite risk score, modelled as Ri = \ + \ Ti + \ Ci + \ Ii + \ᵢ, where T, C, and I represent standardised scores for technical, criticality, and institutional dimensions. Control districts continued with existing asset management protocols. Pre- and post-intervention risk assessments were analysed using mixed-effects regression. ", "findings": "Districts using the diagnostic framework achieved a statistically significant reduction in mean composite risk scores (18. 7%, 95% CI: 14. 2 to 23. 1) compared to control districts. The analysis, employing cluster-robust standard errors, indicated that improvements were driven predominantly by enhanced identification and prioritisation of institutional capacity gaps. ", "conclusion": "The structured diagnostic framework proved effective in reducing identified asset risk within the trial context, primarily by systematically uncovering and addressing institutional weaknesses alongside technical factors. ", "recommendations": "Municipal engineering departments should adopt integrated diagnostic frameworks that formally incorporate institutional capacity assessments. Further research should investigate the longitudinal impact on asset life-cycle costs and failure rates. ", "key words": "asset management, risk assessment, municipal engineering, randomised trial, infrastructure diagnostics, institutional capacity", "contribution statement": "This paper provides the first experimental evidence from a randomised field trial on the