Methodological Evaluation and Time-Series Forecasting of Rural Clinics in Senegal: A Model for Measuring Clinical Outcomes

Rural clinics in Senegal face challenges in delivering consistent clinical outcomes due to resource limitations and varying service quality. The study will employ mixed-methods including surveys, observational data collection, and statistical modelling. A time-series analysis with ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models will be applied to forecast future clinical performance. A preliminary ARIMA model suggests a positive trend in patient recovery rates over the past five years, but variability remains high across different clinics. This study provides foundational insights for enhancing rural clinic effectiveness and supports targeted interventions based on identified trends. Implementing continuous quality improvement programmes and leveraging digital health tools can mitigate observed variations. Treatment effect was estimated with logit (pᵢ) =₀+^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.