Spatial Heterogeneity of O2H-Induced Efficiency Gains in Chain Retail Space: Evidence from Tianjin, China

As a key branch of online-to-offline (O2O) retail, the online-to-home (O2H) model enables goods acquisition through instant delivery, fundamentally reorienting urban retail spatial configuration from “accessibility” to “efficiency”. Using Jincheng, the main urban area of Tianjin as a case study, this research formulated a Goods Acquisition Efficiency (GAE) index to quantify the time-based efficiency gain of O2H over the conventional OIS (offline in-store) mode. An integrated XGBoost-SHAP approach was utilized to examine the spatial variations in efficiency gains and their associated factors. The results reveal that: (1) Efficiency gains follow a concentric pattern, increasing from the core to the periphery (Inner: 0.18; Middle: 0.20; Outer: 0.26), suggesting that O2H provides more pronounced benefits in peripheral areas where retail provision remains limited; (2) The dominant factors vary across zones: environmental attributes in the Inner Urban Zone, transportation and economic factors in the Outer Urban Zone; (3) O2H and OIS exhibit a complementary rather than substitutive relationship—physical stores in inner-city areas can maintain their current configuration, while peripheral zones may benefit from enhanced O2H fulfillment or conversion to micro-fulfillment centers. The GAE index and zonal comparison framework offer methodological references for differentiated optimization of urban retail networks.