Spatial Analysis of Cases of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the State of Pará During the Period From 2010 to 2024

American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) is an infectious disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania, transmitted by the bite of sand flies. The disease affects mainly the skin and, in some cases, the mucous membranes. Therefore, it is inferred that this condition is prevalent in the state, given that Pará has high dissemination. Thus, the objective is to carry out a spatial analysis regarding cases of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the state of Pará during the period from 2010 to 2024. This is a cross-sectional study conducted in the state of Pará that used data collected from the Sistema de Informação Nacional de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) regarding cutaneous leishmaniasis. Cases from 2010 to 2024 were grouped in the Microsoft Office Excel application, with subsequent analysis in the Terraview software through the Moran index. Maps were produced in a GIS environment for better evaluation. The study showed moderate spatial autocorrelation of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the state of Pará, with Moran’s I Index = 0.4891 and p-value = 0.01, indicating statistical significance of the observed spatial pattern. The removal of possible outliers was performed with the objective of reinforcing the spatial structure; however, it did not result in improvement in the autocorrelation index. Analysis of the scatter plot between the standardized values of the variable (Z) and the corresponding spatial means (WZ) confirmed spatial autocorrelation. The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.5063) revealed a considerable relationship between local values and those of their neighboring municipalities. From the distribution of quadrants in the boxmap, a high concentration of positive autocorrelation was observed, with 109 municipalities showing significant spatial association (Q1 and Q2), while 35 municipalities were considered outliers (Q3 and Q4). These results reinforce that the distribution of leishmaniasis cases is not random, but rather influenced by spatial factors, revealing relevant geographic patterns in the territory. The study identified a statistical pattern in the distribution of leishmaniasis cases during the analyzed period. The Moran index evidenced the existence of autocorrelation, indicating the concentration of cases in specific areas and reinforcing the need for further studies. This finding highlights the importance of investments directed toward disease prevention, especially in municipalities with greater vulnerability.