Epidemiological Profile and Predictor Factors of Death in Older People With Hiv: Analysis of Cases Reported in a Specialized Care Service

In Brazil, population aging and the increase in survival due to HIV have raised the number of HIV/AIDS cases in individuals aged 50 years or more. The objective of this study is to describe the epidemiological profile and analyze the factors associated with the outcome of death in people aged 50 years or more living with HIV/AIDS, from cases reported in a specialized care service in the state of Amazonas. A descriptive and analytical epidemiological study was carried out, with a quantitative approach, based on the analysis of secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), from January 2013 to December 2022. For data collection, HIV/AIDS cases of individuals aged 50 years or older were considered. Sociodemographic characteristics and data on exposure category, AIDS case definition, and outcome were analyzed. Descriptive analyses of the sample and multivariate logistic regression, adjusted for sociodemographic variables, were performed to investigate the association between characteristics and negative outcomes. The significance level adopted was 5%. All analyses were processed using ASP (Team JASP, 2024)®. In the study period, 1,116 notifications of people living with HIV aged 50 years or more were included. The mean age was 57.05 years (SD = 6.9), ranging from 50 to 99 years. The highest frequency was of male individuals (71.06%), of brown race/color (79.03%), with complete high school (18.28%) and heterosexual (73.74%). Of the 797 (71.41%) with AIDS case definition criteria, 571 (71.64%) were male, in the 50 to 54-year age group (45.92%), and heterosexual (79.92). Of all variables analyzed, multivariate logistic regression identified that age and sex were significant predictors for the outcome of death. For each year increase in age, the chance of death increased by 3.8% (OR = 1.038; 95% CI: 1.017–1.060; p < 0.001). Male individuals had 1.469 times more chance of death compared to females (OR = 1.469; 95% CI: 1.070–2.018; p = 0.018). This study highlights that, among older people living with HIV, age and male sex are predictors of death, emphasizing the need for more effective prevention strategies, early diagnosis, and strengthening of care and follow-up directed to this population.