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To examine how climate change affects rare and extreme river droughts in Bavaria.

March 18, 2026Open Access

Climate change effects on river droughts in Bavaria using a hydrological large ensemble

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To examine how climate change affects rare and extreme river droughts in Bavaria.
Utilized a physically-based hydrological model (WaSiM) driven by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (SMILE)
Simulated 1500 years for each of four climate periods: reference, current, near future, and far future
Analyzed seasonality and return periods of low flow and duration
Investigated climatic drivers of river drought alterations.
Wörnitz catchment shows an extended autumn low flow regime due to climate change effects.
Bivariate 100-year low flow event frequency shifts from every 100 years in the reference period to as low as 2.5 years in the far future.
Ammer catchment's low-flow season switches from winter-dominant to summer-dominant due to climate warming.
Increased autocorrelation of peak low flows highlights the importance of lagged effects in drought conditions.

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Investigates river drought occurrences in Bavaria under climate change, highlighting implications for water management.

Poschlod et al. (2026) studied this question.

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