Development of foot-and-mouth disease quarantine planning model considering the impact of disinfection points on the actual network

While disinfection points help contain Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), they impose traffic delays and cause congestion. This study aims to develop a scalable framework to quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between disease containment and transport efficiency. We propose a spatial transmission model integrated with traffic assignment on large-scale networks. A key novelty is the integration of a column generation approach, which iteratively generates only the essential paths based on current traffic conditions. This method avoids the combinatorial complexity of full path enumeration, effectively overcoming computational barriers. Scenario analyses regarding installation timing and quantity reveal a distinct trade-off. The results demonstrate that delaying installation reduces traffic delays but leads to a rapid increase in culled livestock, quickly reaching a saturation point. These findings quantitatively underscore the critical necessity of early intervention, as the irreversible damage to livestock outweighs the marginal benefits of reduced traffic delay.