Exploring Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Vegetation Coverage and Driving Factors in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration: Insights from Interpretable Machine Learning

Vegetation coverage is a critical indicator for assessing urban ecosystems and is essential for sustainable development. However, the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation change at the urban agglomeration scale remain underexplored. This study used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to compute the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) for the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration (BGUA), an important emerging coastal urban cluster in southern China, from 2000 to 2022. Trend analysis was employed to examine spatiotemporal changes in kNDVI, and an interpretable machine learning framework was applied to quantify the nonlinear, spatially heterogeneous effects of environmental and anthropogenic drivers. The results show that (1) kNDVI showed a general increasing trend, with medium-to-high kNDVI predominating. Approximately 91.91% of the region maintained an improving trend, whereas vegetation degradation concentrated in the core urban areas. (2) The Categorical Boosting model demonstrated superior performance in predicting kNDVI compared to other machine learning models. (3) The SHAP analysis identified land cover, elevation, and nighttime lights as the primary determinants of kNDVI change. These factors exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity in their nonlinear effects. These findings provide theoretical insights and practical guidance for ecological planning and environmental management in urban agglomerations.