Organizational Pathways to Inclusive Agro-Ecosystem Management: Evidence from Smallholder Participation in Kenya’s Agricultural Carbon Market

Agro-ecosystem approaches are increasingly promoted as integrated solutions for sustainable land use, climate mitigation, and food security, yet concerns remain that market-based instruments may systematically exclude resource-poor smallholder farmers. Using microdata from 8894 households participating in Kenya’s long-running International Small Group and Tree Planting Program, this study examines how institutional and organizational arrangements shape access to agricultural carbon markets and associated sustainable land management practices. We document a participation paradox: farmers in the lowest income quartile exhibit significantly higher adoption than the wealthiest quartile (92.4% vs. 86.3%), challenging conventional resource-based targeting assumptions. Three distinct agro-ecosystem participation pathways are inferred using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) estimated over a feature set of organizational, financial-access, and farm/household characteristics (income, farm size, financial access, crop diversity, livestock holdings, education, organizational membership, and leadership position). A Mainstream pathway (60.2%) reflects resource-driven adoption; an Innovative pathway (32.4%) is associated with high participation among low-income farmers through organizational membership, leadership, and collective action; and a Constrained pathway (7.5%) captures persistent exclusion. Organizational membership is strongly associated with high-adoption pathways, universally present among Mainstream and Innovative farmers and absent among Constrained farmers; readers should note that membership is partly definitional in the clustering procedure, so this association reflects the pathway construction as well as empirical patterns. Leadership roles are associated with substantially increased access to non-monetary benefit streams (OR = 2.13), including training, seedlings, and community infrastructure. These alternative compensation mechanisms are spatially clustered and strongly associated with enrollment, suggesting localized institutional capacity effects. Importantly, the Innovative pathway is associated with superior agro-ecosystem outcomes, including higher tree densities and a greater uptake of conservation farming practices, suggesting possible complementarities between inclusion and ecological performance. Women are overrepresented within this pathway, highlighting the equity potential of organizational channels. Overall, the findings suggest that strengthening local organizational infrastructure can simultaneously enhance land-use sustainability, climate mitigation, and livelihood inclusion. Given the cross-sectional observational design, all findings should be interpreted as associations rather than causal effects; the results offer actionable insights for designing agro-ecosystem programs that integrate governance, social equity, and ecological resilience in support of long-term food security.