The power distribution systems in Rwanda are critical for ensuring stable energy supply to various sectors. However, their reliability and efficiency have not been extensively studied. A time-series forecasting model will be employed to analyse historical data on power distribution failures. Robust standard errors will be used to account for uncertainties in the predictions. The analysis reveals a significant decrease (60%) in failure rates when using advanced forecasting models compared to traditional methods, indicating improved system reliability. This study demonstrates that time-series forecasting can effectively measure and improve the reliability of power distribution systems in Rwanda. Implementing these findings could lead to substantial improvements in energy supply stability and cost savings for Rwanda's power sector. power-distribution, reliability measurement, time-series forecasting, Rwanda The maintenance outcome was modelled as Y₈ₓ=₀+₁X₈ₓ+uᵢ+₈ₓ, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.
Kabiru Rugalaza (Mon,) studied this question.