A push-pull-mooring framework for understanding heterogeneous electric vehicle replacement intentions

The replacement of existing private cars is crucial for the sustainable penetration of electric vehicles (EVs). However, the intentions for current fuel vehicle (FV) owners and EV owners are fundamentally different yet rarely compared within a unified framework. This study develops a novel hybrid model integrating the push–pull–mooring framework with a user acceptance model and a customer satisfaction index to investigate these heterogeneous behavioral mechanisms. Applying multi-group structural equation modeling to a sample of 803 vehicle owners in China (386 FV, 417 EV), our analysis reveals a core asymmetry that FV owners’ switching intention is driven by pragmatic pull factors (price value and facilitating conditions), whereas EV owners’ continuance intention is supported by a crucial mooring anchor (habit) and a broader network of pull factors. Notably, as a push factor, user satisfaction does not directly influence intentions for either group but operates through complex indirect pathways, shaping perceptions of value and habit. These findings yield segment‑specific recommendations for policymakers and industry stakeholders to design differentiated strategies that convert pragmatic switchers while retaining reinforced loyalists.