Employment and value added created by ports: A case study for Germany with an outlook to 2040

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of German sea and inland ports by estimating the employment and gross value added (GVA) generated by the ports in 2022. We consider both direct effects, arising from the economic activity of port stakeholders, and indirect effects, stemming from the economic activity of suppliers in the upstream value chain. Indirect effects are estimated using an input-output model and the official input-output table for Germany. The results show that ports contribute more than 60,500 jobs and €6.1 billion in GVA to the German economy. Based on the findings for 2022 and the "Transport Forecast 2040" for Germany, we discuss the future development of the economic impacts of ports. Notably, the transition to a carbon-neutral economy is expected to largely eliminate imports of fossil energy carriers such as coal and crude oil, while imports of sustainable energy carriers are unlikely to fully compensate for the resulting decline in cargo volumes. This has substantial consequences for cargo handling at ports and the associated employment and GVA.