A joint trade and mode chain choice modelling framework with application to Italy

The needs of governments of European countries in the area of goods mobility include prediction, in base year and in policy scenarios, of monetary trade flows as well as weight transport flows by mode chain. The models and datasets that can be used are reviewed. For trade flows, the structural gravity model, which is standard for international trade analysis. For transport flows by mode chain, the Logit model. Joint non-survey calibration of the gravity and Logit models is feasible on the basis of Eurostat transport data. Regional Input-Output tables as well as travel time, cost and route models provide the needed inputs. Aggregation of flows considers the sectors of solid bulk, liquid bulk, and container and general cargo. Price indices needed to convert monetary flows into weight flows in the prediction stage are obtained from Eurostat data. The proposed approach is applied to Italy.