Satellite-Constrained Estimation of Emissions from Crop Residue Open Burning in Guangxi, Southern China (2017–2023)

Crop residue open burning is a major source of atmospheric pollutants that degrade regional air quality, enhance climate forcing, and threaten public health through emissions of particulate matter, greenhouse gases, and toxic species. In southern China, satellite-based emission estimates are often underestimated because frequent cloud cover and limited spatiotemporal resolution hinder the detection of agricultural fires. In this study, crop residue open burning emissions in Guangxi province from 2017 to 2023 were quantified using a statistical approach. The open burning proportion (OBP) was updated on an annual basis using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) 375 m active fire product (VNP14IMG), and recently reported emission factors (EFS) were adopted to enhance estimation accuracy. Annual emissions of pollutants were then spatially distributed to 0.05° × 0.05° grid cells based on satellite-detected fire counts and land cover information. The results indicated the total emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitric oxide (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PM10), ammonia (NH3), methane (CH4) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) in Guangxi province during 2017–2023 were 58.90, 230.48, 37.90, 213.95, 4234.41, 108,775.48, 583.09, 667.70, 46.36, 322.74 and 710.20 Gg, respectively. Sugarcane residue burning was identified as the dominant contributor, accounting for 41.26–64.38% of total emissions, followed by rice (20.66–43.06%), corn (5.11–17.25%), and cassava (4.33–6.45%). Emissions exhibited clear interannual variability, declining from 2017 to 2020 under strict control measures and increasing again from 2021 to 2023 as enforcement weakened. Incorporating annually updated VIIRS-derived OBPS into the statistical inventory improves the temporal representation and reliability of multi-year emission estimates for agricultural burning.