Terrestrial ecosystems are vital for maintaining equilibrium in the global carbon cycle. Land use and land cover change (LUCC), which is influenced mainly by urbanization and ecological policies, impacts terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage significantly. In this study, spatiotemporal carbon storage changes in the urban belt along the Yellow River in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, were estimated through a model that integrated patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) models from 1993 to 2033. The results revealed that: (1) from 1993 to 2023, the expansion of built-up land and cropland was derived mainly from unused land and grassland, whereas water body and woodland remained relatively stable. Projections to 2033 have indicated that LUCC will continue and be concentrated primarily in the Ningxia Plain; (2) carbon storage increased by a net 5.01×10 6 Mg C from 1993 to 2023; (3) the spatial distribution of carbon storage revealed that high-value areas were predominantly located in the Helan Mountains and the Ningxia Plain, whereas low-value areas were found in the Tengger Desert; (4) scenario projections indicated that by 2033, the ecological protection scenario (EPS) would achieve a 0.18×10 6 Mg C increase by reducing the conversion of woodland to cropland and grassland to built-up land, while increasing the conversion of unused land to grassland. In contrast, the natural development scenario (NDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) decreased carbon storage by 0.60×10 6 , 0.21×10 6 , and 0.42×10 6 Mg C, respectively; and (5) spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that high–high carbon storage clusters formed belt-like patterns along the Ningxia Plain and the Helan Mountains, whereas the low–low carbon storage clusters were concentrated in northern Zhongwei City, western Qingtongxia City, western Dawukou District, and the urbanized areas within the central Ningxia Plain. Overall, the study results revealed the close coupling relationship between LUCC and carbon storage functions. Furthermore, the study establishes a framework for carbon management that balances ecological protection with coordinated urban development for the urban belt as well as for similar arid and semi-arid areas. On the basis of these findings, this study provides decision-makers with guidance to optimize ecosystem carbon storage via land use, which plays a key role in developing future land use policies and achieving the ''dual carbon'' goals.
Hanqi et al. (2026) studied this question.