Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Municipal Solid Waste

The management of municipal solid waste in intermediate cities exhibits high daily variability and source heterogeneity, which hinders operational sizing and material recovery. Reliable predictions are required from heterogeneous and often-scarce data. However, studies that compare multiple machine learning algorithms with temporal validation on short time series in intermediate cities are still limited. This study compares fourteen machine learning algorithms to predict the daily generation of organic and inorganic waste in La Joya de los Sachas, Ecuador, formulating the problem as a multi-output regression problem. An adapted CRISP-DM design was employed, using primary data from a waste characterization campaign, temporal feature engineering, variable encoding, and an expanding-window backtesting protocol against lag-7 persistence and ARIMA. Tree-based ensembles achieved the best performance. AdaBoost provided the best organic forecasts (R2=0.985, RMSE =0.081, MAE=0.061 in rate space), while Random Forest was best for inorganic (R2=0.965, RMSE =0.049, MAE=0.040). Linear models were stable but slightly inferior, and other approaches (SVR, KNN, MLP, Lasso, ElasticNet) showed lower generalization capacity. The study provides a multi-output regression protocol with temporal validation for municipal contexts with short time series, comparative evidence across fourteen algorithms, and a conversion from rates to kilograms for operational use.