Democracy’s Troubles Should Be No Surprise

Barely a generation ago, democratic optimism reigned; today it has given way to deep pessimism about democracy’s future. Critics charge political science with failing to anticipate this reversal. This essay argues that democracy’s current difficulties were predictable, if not widely predicted. Although many contemporary theories struggled to explain recent developments, historically grounded approaches and earlier theories of democratic stability would have highlighted the risks of backsliding, including in Western and particularly U.S. democracy. By moving away from deep historical analysis and neglecting the insights of an earlier generation of democratic theorists, the field was left less prepared to recognize warning signs of global democratic decline and institutional fragility.