What question did this study set out to answer?

The central aim focuses on assessing tree species' vulnerabilities to climate change and identifying potential candidates for assisted migration.

March 21, 2026Climate Change EcologyOpen Access

Vulnerability metrics and climate analogues inform tree species selection and climate bottleneck in a changing climate

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Identifies tree species likely to survive climate change in Canada, suggesting pathways for forest management.

The central aim focuses on assessing tree species' vulnerabilities to climate change and identifying potential candidates for assisted migration.
Quantified climatic niches using worldwide occurrence datasets for 313 North American tree species.
Identified Canadian regions with high climatic exposure based on current climate data.
Determined species sensitivity through climatic safety margins and projected future climates.
45% of species exceed thermal tolerance limits for maximum temperatures.
All species exceed minimum temperature tolerances for cold extremes.
Only 4 to 13 species projected to tolerate both current and future climates in Canada.

Morgane et al. (2026) studied this question.

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