Key result
Between 1990 and 2021, premature mortality rates from noncommunicable chronic diseases in Brazil decreased by 37.7% and DALYs by 34%, though projections to 2050 indicate rising risk factors.
Why the study?
The burden of noncommunicable chronic diseases and their risk factors in Brazil and projections to 2050 were analyzed to inform public health policy and assess progress toward mortality reduction targets.
Observational
Projections for Brazil indicate that while cardiovascular mortality will decline by 2050, rising risk factors like obesity and high blood pressure threaten the achievement of NCD reduction targets.
Requires clinicians to prioritize NCD prevention in routine practice; challenges policy adequacy and extends need for implementation research.
OBJECTIVES: The study aims to analyze the burden of diseases related to noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors (RFs) from 1990 to 2021 and to project of NCDs and RFs for the years 2030 and 2050. METHODS: Estimates of risk factors and mortality from NCDs in Brazil and its States were analyzed based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: There was a 37.7% reduction in premature mortality rates from NCDs and a 34% reduction in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021. Projections for 2050 indicate that mortality from cardiovascular diseases will continue to decline and that these will be supplanted by neoplasms. Mortality rates from diabetes tend to increase, while chronic respiratory diseases show a downward trend. In 2021, the main risk factors associated with premature deaths from NCDs were: high blood pressure, smoking, poor diet, high Body Mass Index (BMI), and high fasting glucose. Projections through 2050 point to an increase in risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, high glucose, physical inactivity, and poor diet - which may compromise the achievement of the 2050 targets for reducing premature mortality from NCDs. CONCLUSION: The study points out that global targets may not be achieved, raising an alert to the urgent need to strengthen public policies aimed at the prevention and control of NCDs.
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Malta et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Noncommunicable chronic diseases. Risk factors for noncommunicable chronic diseases was evaluated on Premature mortality rates from NCDs and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (37.7% reduction in premature mortality rates and 34% reduction in DALYs). Between 1990 and 2021, premature mortality rates from noncommunicable chronic diseases in Brazil decreased by 37.7% and DALYs by 34%, though projections to 2050 indicate rising risk factors.
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