Ecosystem service valuation coupled with AI for evaluating agricultural water-saving renovation benefits in Yahekou irrigation district considering precipitation uncertainty

Global water scarcity constrains sustainable development, and agricultural water-saving renovation is critical for water security, food production and ecological protection. However, existing evaluations rarely incorporate precipitation uncertainty—a core inherent factor in agricultural irrigation—leading to inadequate reflection of real-world comprehensive benefits. This study develops a novel evaluation framework to quantify both deterministic and uncertain benefits of water-saving renovation by integrating ecological service valuation with AI-based cloud model, addressing the above limitation. Validated in Yahekou Irrigation District (a large gravity-fed system in China), the results show that: (1) The water-saving renovation generates an average annual ecological service value of USD 67.58 million, 6.20 times its annual economic cost, highlighting substantial comprehensive benefits; (2) Precipitation amount and its spatiotemporal distribution during crop growing seasons are key determinants of comprehensive benefits—each 1 mm increase in precipitation reduces benefits by USD 1.37 million; (3) The annual comprehensive benefits range from USD 18.27 million to USD 130.90 million with 68.26% reliability. This framework comprehensively quantifies multi-dimensional benefits while accounting for precipitation uncertainty, improving the authenticity and practicality of water-saving benefit assessments. It provides a robust tool for evidence-based decision-making in irrigation district management under changing hydrological conditions.