What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to address how to secure elite compliance during Venezuela's democratic transition without compromising justice principles.

March 21, 2026

How To Secure Venezuelan Democracy

Key Points

The aim is to address how to secure elite compliance during Venezuela's democratic transition without compromising justice principles.
Analyzed Venezuela's context post-Maduro's capture in 2026.
Reviewed cases from Spain, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, Egypt, and Iraq.
Proposed a differentiated amnesty based on crime severity and importance.
Identified the risks of a blanket amnesty validating repression.
Outlined four pathways for amnesty: exile, exceptions, truth, and prosecution.
Highlighted the need for a balance between accountability and elite cooperation.

Abstract

Abstract: Maduro’s capture in January 2026 makes Venezuela’s transitional-justice problem urgent: how to secure elite acquiescence without sacrificing truth, accountability, reparation, and non-repetition. Trump’s choice to work with interim leader Delcy Rodríguez over opposition winner María Corina Machado highlights an adverse-selection dilemma—regime insiders may fear Machado is a maximalist who will punish anyone tied to Chavismo. Yet a rushed, blanket amnesty would validate repression and shield perpetrators. Drawing on the cases of Spain, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, Egypt, and Iraq, this essay proposes a differentiated amnesty that sorts actors by crime severity and strategic importance, along four pathways: exile, exceptions, truth, and prosecution.

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How To Secure Venezuelan Democracy

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