Applications of marine ecosystem models for Pacific salmon conservation and management in the Northeast Pacific

Pacific salmon populations have experienced widespread declines despite substantial single-species management, highlighting the need for ecosystem-based approaches that consider life-cycle dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and environmental variability. Management models are typically split between freshwater and marine realms, limiting comprehensive assessment across the full salmon life cycle. This systematic review synthesizes 34 peer-reviewed marine multispecies ecosystem models (MEMs) developed from 2000 to 2024 that include Pacific salmon, their main predators, and prey. Models ranged from aggregated frameworks to complex end-to-end platforms, covering the California Current, British Columbia, Salish Sea, Bering Sea, and Gulf of Alaska, with 11–170 functional groups. Salmon representation varied from aggregated groups to detailed life-stage frameworks, with all models including key trophic linkages with forage species and marine mammal predators. Climate change was included in 65% of studies, mostly via primary productivity anomalies, but only six simulated future scenarios. Fishing pressure was evaluated in 85% of studies, yet only 32% addressed explicit management applications, revealing a critical science-management gap. Major gaps include limited spatial-temporal resolution, insufficient climate integration, and limited operational uptake. We recommend linking marine and freshwater models, co-development with managers and rightsholders, enhanced climate coupling, and ensemble modeling to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management and address urgent salmon conservation challenges.