Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change, with rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns undermining agricultural productivity-particularly in regions reliant on rainfed farming. In India’s northeastern state of Assam, where rice is a staple crop and a key livelihood source, changing climate poses serious challenges to sustainable food production. This study examines the temporal variation of aridity over the past four decades (1981–2020) and its influence on the efficiency of Sali rice production using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) framework. Future production of this crop was also projected (2021–2090) using ensemble outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The analysis of Oury’s Index (OI) indicates significant decline in soil moisture conditions (slope − 0.25). Weather-induced inefficiencies were modelled using OI and Oury shocks, alongside key production inputs such as land, capital, labour, and technology. Among these, land area exhibited the highest output elasticity, followed by capital and technological progress. Notably, the incorporation of additional state specific variables as strategies improved the efficiency coefficient by 0.017, indicating potential for adaptive gains. The results revealed distinct regional disparities, Technical Efficiency scores in Upper Assam (0.996) consistently outperforms the Lower Assam (0.78). Overall, aridity-induced shocks constrained the expected growth trajectory of rice production in a developing agrarian economy. Sonitpur emerged as the top-performing district, while Kamrup Metro., impacted by rapid urbanization, ranked lowest in projections. These findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies to safeguard long-term food security in the face of intensifying climatic stress.
Kumari et al. (Fri,) studied this question.