Mind the unknown: Conceptual development and validation of the uncertainty mindset

The prevailing assumption that uncertainty is something to be reduced and avoided fails to explain uncertainty-seeking behaviors, calling for a move away from the dominant uncertainty reduction perspective towards uncertainty regulation . In line with uncertainty regulation theory, we propose uncertainty mindset (UM)—i.e., one's basic belief about the nature of uncertainty—as a holistic construct encompassing the multi-faceted nature of uncertainty beliefs. Integrating two main strands of mindset research, we conceptualize UM as a formative construct combining beliefs about uncertainty as fixed, malleable, threat, and opportunity. Moreover, we acknowledge that these beliefs combine to a higher-level construct: uncertainty-as-enabling mindset, which predicts relevant preferences, attitudes, and behaviors. We validate a multi-faceted measure of UM with three studies, using a time-lagged design and a multi-country sample of N = 1476 adults. Results show that the four facets of UM exist as distinct, but that a higher-order construct is also viable, has discriminant and predictive validity, and generalizes across nations. The development of UM lays the basis for testing uncertainty regulation mechanisms and related cognitive and behavioral processes. • Uncertainty mindset (UM) captures uncertainty beliefs holistically. • UM extends uncertainty regulation theory, as it precedes uncertainty appraisals. • UM is a four-factor (threat, opportunity, malleable, fixed) formative construct. • UM predicts attitudes and behaviors above and beyond related constructs. • UM's factor structure generalizes across multiple languages.