Early Indications of Success of Rehabilitating Degraded Lands through Green Legacy Initiative Implemented in South Ethiopia

Large-scale restoration planting programs are central to landscape restoration and climate mitigation, yet their effectiveness depends largely on post-planting seedling survival. This study assessed early plantation survival and its determinants across selected kebeles in Southern Ethiopia under the Green Legacy program. Data were collected through field inventories using transects and quadrats, complemented by secondary plantation records. In total, 44, 501 seedlings ha −1 of four exotic tree species ( Acacia saligna, Cassia fistula, Azadirachat indica and Grevillea robusta ) were planted, of which 35, 599 seedlings ha −1 survived, yielding an overall survival rate of approximately 80%. Species wise analysis showed variation in survival outcomes. A. salgina contributed the largest proportion of surviving seedlings (75%), reflecting its higher planting intensity across sites, followed by C. fistula , while A. indica and G. robusta contributed comparatively fewer surviving individuals. Bivariable logistic regression identified five candidate predictors of survival (p < 0.25), and multivariable analysis revealed three significant determinants (p < 0.05). Seedling age at planting was negatively associated with survival, with younger seedlings showing lower odds of survival (AOR = 0.64; 95%CI: 0.41-0.87). Planting during wet season substantially increased survival likelihood (AOR = 7.11; 95%: CI: 4.70-8.92), and training in plantation practices significantly improved outcomes (AOR = 2.61; 95% CI: 2.02-3.01). site and species specific patterns further reflected interactions among agroecological conditions and management practices. The findings highlight the importance of ecological timing, seedling quality, and institutional support in improving restoration outcomes, and provide evidence based guidance for strengthening large scale plantation initiatives in Ethiopia.