A holistic framework for portfolio risk management of megaprojects

The distinctive characteristics of megaproject portfolios, particularly their complexity and interdependencies, shape how risks must be managed. This study explores how portfolio-level risk management activities influence performance outcomes in megaproject portfolios. Drawing on a longitudinal single case-study from a major energy company managing multiple megaprojects, we utilize a mixed-methods approach that includes: 150 hours of participant observation, analysis of 176 documented risks, and nine interviews. Our findings highlight heightened exposure to risk interdependencies on portfolio-level and the critical need for strategic oversight from top management. In response, we introduce a holistic framework that integrates bottom-up project level risk assessment with top-down strategic assessment. This framework enhances transparency, supports alignment with portfolio objectives and enables the organization to manage a cohesive portfolio effectively. For project-based organizations where projects serve as the foundation of corporate strategy, the framework offers a practical tool to manage risk at scale, avoid sub-optimization, and ensure strategic fit.