A Method for Predicting the Waterflood Sweep Efficiency in Deepwater Turbidite Channel Oil Reservoirs

The complex architecture and stacking patterns of deepwater turbidite channel sandbodies introduce significant uncertainty in injector–producer connectivity. This uncertainty affects both the mechanisms and the quantitative evaluation of the waterflood sweep. In this study, a representative reservoir in the Niger Delta Basin is selected as a case study. Injector–producer well groups are first classified into three connectivity patterns—coeval, cross-stage, and hybrid based on geological and seismic constraints. Time-lapse seismic data are then interpreted to delineate sweep morphology and to infer the controlling mechanisms associated with each pattern. Coeval connectivity exhibits a relatively uniform and continuous front advance with minimal barriers. Cross-stage connectivity shows fragmented swept regions with pronounced bypassing, and localized preferential breakthrough caused by discontinuous sandbodies and pervasive barriers. Hybrid connectivity is characterized by intermediate behavior, combining features of both patterns. To translate these mechanistic differences into quantitative metrics for development evaluation, an oil–water relative permeability ratio correlation for low viscosity oil is established that remains valid across the full water cut range, thereby overcoming the limitations of conventional semi-log linear correlations at both low and ultra-high water cut stages. Based on this framework, a production data-driven predictive model for waterflood sweep efficiency is derived using production data and steady state flow theory. The model is validated across well groups representing different connectivity patterns. Field application yields a consistent ranking of sweep efficiency: coeval > hybrid > cross-stage, with group average values of 0.86, 0.80, and 0.70, respectively. These results agree with the mechanistic interpretation derived from time-lapse seismic analysis. The proposed methodology provides a practical quantitative framework for evaluating injector–producer connectivity and comparing development strategies in deepwater turbidite channel reservoirs.