Is Burundi losing the last remnants of its forests? A high-resolution spatial analysis for the identification of areas at deforestation hazard

Burundian forests are facing high pressure due to human activities, high population growth rates, and density. The study aims at identifying and classifying Burundian forests according to deforestation hazard (DH) through a high-resolution Composite Mapping Analysis based on multiple drivers: proximity to agricultural areas, to roads, to quarries, to settlements, slope class, presence of protected areas. Forests currently cover about 13% of the terrestrial surface. Most of the forest cover (59%) results to be at high DH and a significant part (25%) at medium hazard. Only 12% of forest cover is at low hazard and 3% at very low hazard. Spatial analyses confirmed the relationship between forest density and DH: where forest cover is <20% (scattered smaller forests) DH is higher compared to areas with forest cover >60% (contiguous large forests). Higher DH values are associated with forests located at intermediate altitude (1000 to 2000 m). DH is of medium-high level also in steep slopes that need particular attention due to hydrogeological risk. Human activities are continuously shrinking Burundian forests, and, while small-scale and family farming contributes to this trend, particular attention should be paid to large plantations that spread in the last decades causing environmental and social problems with limited benefits for the local communities. Small forest patches, having higher DH, need to be preserved for ecological and protective roles (connecting habitats, reducing erosion and landslides). Data calls for the urgent need to balance food production and forest conservation, promoting agricultural training, sustainable agricultural practices, and community-based forest management.