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This research examines whether Russian natural gas exports are essential for European gas consumption amidst geopolitical tensions.

March 28, 2026Open Access

Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios

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This research examines whether Russian natural gas exports are essential for European gas consumption amidst geopolitical tensions.
Utilized the Global Gas Model (GGM) for analysis.
Investigated various long-term scenarios of gas supply and demand in the EU.
Assessed impacts of potential sanctions and supply disruptions on gas consumption.
EU gas consumption can be adequately met without Russian exports under all scenarios explored.
Diverse gas sources and demand response strategies can compensate for disruptions.
Long-term energy security strategies are feasible without reliance on Russian gas.

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Model-based analysis shows EU gas consumption can be met without Russian gas, indicating energy security strategies.

Barner et al. (2025) studied this question.

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