The immediate requirement to decarbonise residential heat to deliver net-zero targets creates considerable pressure on electrical distribution networks. Heat pumps (HPs) provide an efficient pathway route to decarbonisation, but widespread deployment threatens to challenge the capacity of low-voltage infrastructure at peak demand periods. This research examines the integration and optimisation of HP and thermal energy storage (TES) systems at community level, with a goal of minimising peak demand, improving energy efficiency and enabling renewable energy integration. Using the Trent Basin development in Nottingham (76 residential properties) as a case study, this research developed and evaluated multiple control strategies for coordinating HP and TES operation. A comprehensive methodology was implemented, combining building energy modelling using the intelligent Community Design tool with a custom MATLAB simulation framework. Three distinct control approaches were evaluated: a baseline model implementing conventional uncoordinated HP operation, a fixed threshold model introducing basic grid-aware control through static operational thresholds, and an active building model incorporating dynamic optimisation with daily threshold adjustments for each building. The active building model demonstrated significant improvements across multiple performance metrics, achieving around 20% reduction in peak electrical demand (from around 500 kWe to 400kWe) compared to the baseline model and carbon emissions by 5% while maintaining similar total energy consumption levels. This sophisticated control approach transformed demand profiles, improving load factor from 0.35 to 0.48 and reducing demand volatility by decreasing maximum ramp rates 5 from 45kW/hour to 15kW/hour. HP coincidence factors during peak periods were reduced from 0.76 to 0.45, substantially improving network loading patterns. Economic analysis revealed that while modest cost increase (1.9%) occurred under standard electricity tariffs, these decreased under time-varying pricing structures— reaching 12.1% under Economy 7 and 17.5% under Dynamic tariffs. This highlighted the importance of aligning market mechanisms with control strategies to maximize economic viability. The research demonstrates that community-scale optimisation offers advantages beyond the aggregation of individual building benefits. Collective system benefits created by harmonised operating demonstrate that strategies to decarbonise heat should give priority to community-scale measures over the optimisation of single buildings. The results give powerful evidence that advanced control strategies can manage the grid effects of massive HP deployment and promote more penetration under current network conditions than standard analysis would yield. This has profound effects on network planning, investment in new equipment, and policy formulation to enable cost-efficient decarbonisation of heat without compromising the security of the grid.
Zaid Al-Atari (Tue,) studied this question.