Abstract Warming permafrost is driving widespread terrain destabilization and collapse through retrogressive thaw slumps, stripping vegetation and releasing soil carbon. Despite increasing thaw slump disturbances in permafrost regions, the time and patterns of vegetation recovery remain uncertain. Here we estimate surface greenness recovery times and compositional changes following disturbances across northern tundra regions, using data from remote sensing imagery. Our findings reveal that low-stature vegetation recolonizes barren terrain in low-Arctic sites within a decade, followed by erect shrubs, resulting in greener surface than undisturbed areas. In contrast, vegetation recovery in high-Arctic and high-elevation sites requires over 30 years. Greenness recovery time ( τ , years) varies widely but can be accurately predicted by a power-law function (1.35 × (GPP) −1.68 , P < 0.05) based on solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence-derived ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP, kgC m −2 yr −1 ). We present a regionally scalable framework to quantify surface greenness recovery times and reveal divergent vegetation succession pathways following permafrost disturbances across tundra regions.
Xia et al. (2026) studied this question.