Socioeconomic Status and Intentions for Postgraduate Study: A Heterogeneity Analysis of the University′s Supportive Environment via Causal Forests

The university stage is a critical transitional period for individuals transitioning from late adolescence to early adulthood. During this transition, the supportive environment provided by universities plays a pivotal role in shaping students′ further education decisions. Supervisor and peer support, course quality, and institutional support are key dimensions that determine students′ intentions for postgraduate study. Based on 2025 microlevel survey data from 1760 undergraduate and master′s education students across Chinese universities, this study employs the causal forest algorithm to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between family socioeconomic status (SES) and students′ intentions for postgraduate study. By incorporating multiple dimensions of the university′s supportive environment as heterogeneity feature variables and estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), the study uncovers the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) of SES across different support contexts. Findings revealed significant individual‐level HTEs of SES on students′ intentions for postgraduate study. Moreover, intentions for postgraduate study were jointly shaped by both SES and the university′s supportive environment. For the undergraduate cohort, the university′s supportive environment was of significant value in bridging disadvantages in social capital, whereas course quality and institutional support were instrumental in bridging the disadvantages in comprehensive SES and regional economic capital. For the master′s cohort, the course quality and the institutional support effectively counteracted economic capital barriers, whereas the frequency of supervisor guidance and opportunities for domestic and international exchanges effectively bridged the gap in intentions for postgraduate study for those with insufficient cultural capital. However, other supportive environments amplified the intentions for postgraduate study among students with high SES. Additionally, for the undergraduate cohort, the heterogeneity was primarily driven by access to institutional resources, specifically domestic and international exchange programs and robust career development support. For the master′s cohort, the key drivers of heterogeneity shifted toward academic integration, including the frequency of supervisor guidance and course quality. The study suggests that the pathway to the highest degree is still largely shaped by family background and the supportive environment, highlighting serious challenges to educational equity.