Previous research has emphasised the importance of institutions that allow representation of opposition groups’ interests in reducing the risk of civil war. However, the extant research has overlooked the function of top executive policymaking bodies that play a key role in formulating legislative agendas and are responsible for policy implementation. Considering the role of top policymaking bodies (cabinet and state councils), this article examines the effect of variation in civilian control of political decision-making institutions. I argue that weak civilian control of political decision-making increases the risk of civil conflict by reducing civilian input in policy formulation and enabling the translation of the military’s hawkish preferences into core policies. The results provide strong support for my hypothesis and are robust to alternative explanations. I complement these results with a case study of El Salvador (1975–1980), which corroborates the causal mechanisms highlighted in the theory.
Rizwan Asghar (2026) studied this question.