Using GIS to Examine the Optimal Location for Long-Term Care Facilities in a Depopulating and Super-aging Society : A case study of Niigata City

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze and discuss a plan for effective and efficient location of long-term care facilities in a depopulating and super-aging society with the use of GIS (geographical information system) data on distribution of communal daily long-term care facilities for dementia patients (group homes) and elderly population in Niigata City, while also taking into consideration future demographics and service lifespan of the facilities. More specifically, we used data on current and projected future population of the elderly aged 75 and over at the small-area level (“Machi,” “Cho,” and “Aza”), and compared the current and future needs for group homes by service area and the current supply situation of the said facilities. Our analysis elucidated that a strong sense of insufficiency of these facilities is already being felt in urban areas, including DIDs (densely inhabited districts), while suburban farming communities are relatively over-supplied. It also clarified that, looking to the future, the sense of insufficiency in urban areas is expected to rise increasingly, while the sense of excessive supply is expected to grow further in the suburban farming communities. As this result is based on the current and projected future population data on the elderly aged 75 and over, this finding is considered applicable not only to group homes but also to other residential long-term care facilities. As the need for these types of facilities is expected to grow more than ever against the backdrop of a further increase in the elderly population in future, we believe that the issue of improved efficiency of these facilities by optimizing their geographical locations (through restructuring or relocation) will become increasingly significant. At the same time, promotion of Care Compact City and urban restructuring will also be required in light of financial constraints.