Do better institutions mitigate the environmental effects of export quality? A PMG-ARDL investigation of Asian countries

Purpose: This study examines how export quality (EQI) interacts with institutional quality (IQI), GDP per capita (GDPPC), and urbanisation (URB) to shape greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Asia, concentrating on whether IQI controls the environmental impact of EQI and in what circumstances does export modernisation translate into cleaner production and lower emissions. Design: Based on a theory-driven framework, this research utilises an econometric approach suitable for heterogeneous Asian panels, embedding an EQI×IQI interaction term to measure moderation. A log–log transformation provides elasticities and enables interpretation of short- and long-run dynamics, while considering cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Findings: Higher EQI mitigate GHG emissions when IQI is strong, via better environmental implementation, cleaner technology diffusion, and access to green finance; in contrast, weak IQI can temper or reverse this effect, allowing carbon-intensive upgrade paths. URB and GDPPC impact energy demand and technology integration, with urbanisation conceivably declining emissions under robust governance but boosting them when governance is weak. The study indicates that the marginal effect of EQI on GHG changes with IQI levels, evidencing a context-dependent technology-for-green policy channel in Asia. Originality: The paper establishes a conditional EQI–GHG mechanism moderated by IQI within an Asia-focused context, tests the EQI×IQI interaction in a log–linear ARDL/PMG-ARDL framework, and highlights sectoral/regional heterogeneity to inform policy design in diverse Asian economies.