The urgent green shift in Türkiye’s energy landscape: Insights from an Augmented-ARDL analysis of electricity consumption, urbanisation, economic growth, and carbon emissions

This study estimates the short- and long-run elasticities of CO 2 with respect to electricity consumption, urbanisation, and income in Türkiye over 1990–2020 using an Augmented-ARDL framework. Türkiye’s fossil-based power mix links higher electricity use to higher emissions. Results indicate that a 1% increase in electricity consumption is associated with a 0.66% rise in CO 2 in the long run and 0.51% in the short run. Urbanisation reduces emissions in the short-run (−0.36%), plausibly via densification and efficiency gains, but this effect does not persist in the long run. Income is positively associated with emissions (0.54% long-run; 0.42% short-run), consistent with an energy-intensive growth trajectory. Bounds-type and augmented tests provide strong evidence of cointegration among the variables. Diagnostic checks indicate no residual serial correlation or ARCH effects, approximate normality, and parameter stability (CUSUM/CUSUMSQ within 5% bounds). The findings underscore the need to accelerate the shift toward sustainable electricity, integrate urban planning into climate policy to preserve short-run efficiency gains, and calibrate growth strategies to balance economic objectives with emissions reduction—policy directions that align with Sustainable Development Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and support progress toward SDG 13 (Climate Action).