A Comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment of Electric Vehicle Operations in the District of Columbia: Analyzing the Impact of Fuel Mix Scenarios

Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a vital component of sustainable urban mobility. In this life cycle assessment, the GREET model (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies) is used to compare three EV scenarios for Washington, DC, the capital of the United States. We compare these three scenarios to a 2022 baseline scenario that describes the current state of EV utilization in Washington, DC. The three future scenarios we examine are based on policy assumptions that differ in the extent to which they integrate renewable energy into the EV future of Washington, DC. Our findings suggest a significant decrease in greenhouse gases between 52 and 66 percent by 2050 and a similar decline in other air-pollutants associated with all three future scenarios. This confirms the advantages of EVs for urban air quality. However, two important aspects of the analysis suggest that there is (1) the threat of emissions leakage associated with electricity imports into DC, which complicates the overall assessment of local environmental benefits; and (2) an increase in non-exhaust emissions of particulate matter attributable to tire and brake wear. These emissions cannot be removed through electrification and tend to increase due to the increased weight of EVs. Our analysis shows that the full capabilities of electric vehicles can best be realized through grid decarbonatization. Achieving genuine sustainable mobility therefore requires complementary strategies that address transboundary emissions and vehicle-specific non-exhaust particulates.