The transition from upper secondary to higher education: survey insights from Italy

Two data sets for 2009 were used to compare Italians and immigrants: the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and the Italian Survey on Income and Living Conditions of Families with Immigrants (IM-SILC). A sub-sample of subjects between 20 and 25 years of age was set up, containing individual, family, and contextual variables. Their effects on the choice of tertiary education (yes/no) were assessed using a Lasso method to determine the significant explanatory set of variables through a Bayesian approach also aimed at identifying interaction terms. The transition from high school to higher education showed a complex pattern involving many variables: young women continued with their education more than young men; the educational level of the parents and many components of income entered the model in a parabolic form. Significant contextual factors included the degree of urbanisation and household tenure status. New elements of this study include the sample, the Lasso method in this field, and some empirical results.