Empirical Theories of Electoral Change

Empirical Theories of Electoral ChangeThis chapter reviews relatively recent literature on electoral change in various countries to uncover major sources of electoral change.Models of electoral competition can be divided into voter-led and party-led types (Rose and McAllister 1990, pp. 2-3).Bartolini and Mair (1990) combined the two to perform the most comprehensive analysis to date of the electoral volatility of European democracies in terms of: (1) voters' cleavage identities, (2) policy distance, (3) the number of political parties in competition, (4) electoral institutions, and (5) electoral participation. 1 As this study focuses on the tendency of voters to change their party support under a given party system, party-led models are not dealt with here. 2The following review of electoral behavior in general shows that the major sources of "voter-led" electoral change and/ or volatility are: (1) party identification, (2) social cleavages, (3) retrospective voting, and (4) values.These four variables are put in nearly chronological order regarding when each became a major research area.