Transformation of Iranian Military Cooperation in Syria: From Strategic Partnership to Geopolitical Collapse (2011–2024)

The subject of this study is the transformation of Iranian military cooperation with Syria from 2011 to 2024. The object of the study is the system of extraterritorial power projection employed by the Islamic Republic of Iran through the coordination of non-state armed groups and institutional consolidation on Syrian territory. The author examines in detail the evolution of an advisory presence into a full-scale military deployment, the structure and financing of allied formations, and the logistics infrastructure of Iran's presence. Particular attention is paid to the factors behind the rapid collapse of Tehran's thirteen-year project in December 2024. The geopolitical consequences of losing the Syrian foothold are analyzed separately, including the cascading degradation of Iran's regional architecture and the direct military escalation of 2025–2026. The research methodology is based on historical periodization, comparative analysis of external actors' actions, and content analysis of official statements, declassified documents, and leaks. The empirical base comprises data from ACLED, SOHR, and the analytical centers WINEP, CTC, and ICG. The novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive analysis of the entire cycle of Iranian military presence in Syria — from the initial advisory phase to the complete loss of positions and the subsequent escalation. Most existing works address individual stages or aspects of this process. The article offers for the first time a holistic periodization covering four phases of transformation and their cascading consequences. The author's particular contribution is the identification of a structural contradiction in the Iranian proxy model: its high combat effectiveness during active operations is combined with critical vulnerability when the political environment shifts. The main conclusions of the study are as follows. The institutionalization of Iran's presence paradoxically undermined its resilience. The systematic elimination of command personnel, economic exhaustion, and Damascus's distancing collectively created the conditions for a rapid collapse. The loss of Syria triggered a chain reaction affecting Iran's entire regional architecture and leading to direct military confrontation. The long-term political outcomes of military pressure on Tehran remain uncertain.