Post independence development in sub Saharan Africa (SSA), an econometric view of Seers (1969)

This study investigates what extent did post-independence policies succeed in reducing poverty, inequitable income distribution and in providing gainful employment . The analysis revisits the development experience of post-independence Sub-Saharan Africa using panel econometrics within the context of globalisation. The study estimated the pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as the dynamic System GMM in a globalised economic environment. Findings show the presence of a high degree of inertia in all three outcomes, as indicated by the lag coefficients of approximately 0.94–0.95, which indicates a slow adjustment to shocks and consequently muted one-year effects. In the static panels, GDP growth remains poverty reducing and in the dynamic panels, the contemporaneous effect of growth on poverty reduction vanishes once persistence is accounted for, which indicates that growth mainly operates through cumulative channels. While investment consistently reduces poverty, inflation and depreciation of the local currency impact poverty by raising it due to the erosion of real income. Changes in inequality are slow, and while the relationship of growth to inequality is imprecisely estimated, high inequality is associated with high poverty. Unemployment has a high degree of persistence and weak responsiveness to growth which is consistent with job-poor growth. The study concluded that while growth is necessary, it is insufficient to achieve inclusive outcomes. Public policy should focus on the productive public capital that stimulates private investment and the balance needed to safeguard real income at macroeconomic levels, as well as the human capital and structural reforms necessary for employment-absorbing growth improvements. This study contributes to literature by examining Seers’ (1969) concept of development within a contemporary econometric framework across SSA while explicitly accounting for globalisation dynamics. The study integrates Seers’ propositions with growth and distribution dynamics through pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects and System GMM modelling techniques. The latter further enhances the robustness of the findings.