Aims: This research aims to examine spatial changes in agricultural and environmental land uses in the Samarra District from 2012 to 2022, identifying trends in the transformation of natural resources and land cover. Additionally, it seeks to project these changes through 2032 using statistical forecasting models to uncover development opportunities and assess risks associated with environmental degradation. Methodology: The study utilized quantitative analysis of spatial distribution data for key land use categories by comparing land cover maps from 2012 and 2022. Changes in water areas, barren lands, various levels of vegetation cover, and inhabited lands were documented. Regression coefficients were employed to predict anticipated changes through 2032, aiming to provide an accurate outlook on trends in agricultural and urban growth as well as resource degradation. Results: The findings indicated significant shifts in land use patterns; water bodies declined from 508.8 km² in 2012 to 425.2 km² in 2022, and barren land saw a substantial reduction from 3,220.5 km² to 1,880 km², suggesting its reinvestment in agricultural or urban development. In contrast, medium-density vegetation increased from 916.7 km² to 1,760.6 km², while very dense vegetation rose from 16.7 km² to 25 km². Inhabited land experienced significant growth, expanding from 429.7 km² to 961.2 km² over the same period. Projections for 2032 suggest that this trend will persist, with further agricultural and urban expansion accompanied by additional declines in water resources and barren land. Conclusions: The findings highlight a structural transformation in land use within the Samarra District, characterized by the growth of agricultural and urban activities and the reduction of water bodies and barren land. These changes carry significant implications: on one hand, they present extensive developmental, agricultural, and urban opportunities; on the other hand, they heighten environmental risks, particularly concerning water scarcity and soil degradation. The study underscores the need for the development of balanced land-use management strategies to ensure environmental sustainability and the preservation of the region's essential resources.
Zena Fajr (Mon,) studied this question.