Saturation-aware critical raw material demands of India’s multi-modal passenger EV transition

• Saturation-aware DMFA models India’s multimodal EV transition to 2050. • Two- and three-wheelers electrify fastest, saturate early, limiting long-term growth. • Electric cars drive long-term battery and CRM demand through 2050. • Lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper demands near or exceed 2022 global outputs. • Sensitivity shows saturation and battery life drive 2050 demand. Critical raw material (CRM) availability is a key constraint for large-scale transport electrification in emerging economies. To assess India’s transition, lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and copper demand from 2022 to 2050 is analysed using a saturation-aware dynamic material flow model with mode-specific saturation limits across five passenger modes and IEA-aligned scenarios (STEPS, APS, EV30@30). India’s multi-modal structure produces a dual-rate electrification pathway distinct from the car-centric systems in developed markets. Two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws electrify early, and net stock tapers as they approach saturation, limiting long-term CRM contribution, while electric cars expand through 2050 and dominate battery and CRM demand. Despite the gradual shift from fleet expansion to replacement, CRM demand rises sharply: by 2050, lithium and copper exceed 2022′s global production levels, cobalt and nickel approach or exceed, and manganese remains lower. These findings highlight India’s growing influence on global CRM markets and the need for coordinated national strategies.