This analysis reveals rising N2O emissions from natural soils, suggesting land-use data greatly impacts estimates.
Atmospheric N 2 O, the dominant ozone‐depleting substance and a potent greenhouse gas, has risen notably over recent decades. Using a process‐based model, we simulated the sensitivity of N 2 O emissions from undisturbed natural soils to the representation of historical land‐cover change from 1990 to 2023 by factoring the effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition, biological nitrogen fixation, rock weathering, and soil uptake. Simulations based on the potential vegetation distribution data show average emissions of 6.24 ± 0.72 Tg N yr −1 with a significant upward trend (+0.021 Tg N yr −1 ) from 1990 to 2023, while European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative land cover estimates were 30% lower, underscoring the sensitivity of N 2 O estimates to land‐cover representation. Most emissions stem from background processes (69.8% ± 4.5%), followed by nitrogen fixation (16.3% ± 2.6%), atmospheric deposition (9.2% ± 1.3%), and rock weathering (4.7% ± 1.1%). The accelerating trend of N 2 O emissions under changing climate conditions and key uncertainties are tied to used land‐cover data sets, limited observation data, and unresolved hydrological extremes.
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Yuan et al. (2026) studied this question.
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