Accurate shape control is paramount for ensuring the quality of hot-rolled strip products, which is significantly challenged by the high dimensionality, inherent nonlinearity, and strong coupling of process parameters. While machine learning (ML) methods have demonstrated superior predictive performance in product quality modeling, the inherent “black-box” nature and lack of transparency severely undermine system reliability and hinder practical deployment. Existing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches predominantly rely on statistical correlations while overlooking the underlying causal mechanisms among coupled variables, which severely limits the validity of explanations. To address these limitations, a causal XAI diagnosis and optimization framework for hot-rolled strip shape is proposed. Initially, a hybrid causal structure learning module is established, which integrates domain knowledge with the NOTEARS-MLP algorithm to accurately reconstruct the causal topology and decode the complex coupling mechanisms among process parameters. Subsequently, a high-performance quality prediction module utilizing AutoML techniques is constructed to establish a robust predictive baseline. Furthermore, a causal XAI and quality optimization module is introduced, which incorporates causal constraints into standard Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis for transparent diagnosis, and employs piecewise linear analysis (PLR) to generate sample-specific optimization strategies. Comprehensive experimental validation demonstrates that the prediction module significantly outperforms state-of-the-art ML approaches across multiple performance metrics. Additionally, comparative analysis reveals that the optimization strategy based on causal feature attribution exhibits 14.7% defect rate reduction over the associational baseline, which is effective, efficient and establishes a new benchmark for causal explainability in industrial process optimization applications.
Wu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.