Carbon emissions from crop farming are a critical component of carbon emissions from land use. This study focuses on crop farming in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The carbon emission coefficient method, the LMDI model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the GM(1,1) gray forecasting model were employed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, decoupling effects, and future trends of carbon emissions from crop farming in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, based on panel data from 11 provinces (municipalities) covering the period 2013–2024. The results show that the total carbon emissions from crop farming in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibit an inverted “U”-shaped pattern, rising initially and then declining, while carbon emission intensity continues to decrease. In terms of emission sources, methane emissions from paddy fields account for the highest proportion, emissions from agricultural inputs show a steady decline, and emissions from soil use continue to rise. Regarding driving factors, crop farming efficiency is the most significant negative driver, while regional economic development serves as the primary positive driver; the decoupling pattern has gradually transitioned from “weak decoupling” to a predominantly “strong decoupling” pattern; projection results indicate that both carbon emissions and emission intensity from crop farming in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will generally decline in the future, though regional pressure for emission reductions remains significant; agricultural industrial structures should be optimized and adjusted, with efforts focused on promoting the standardized and scaled development of organic and ecological agriculture to facilitate the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.
Cai et al. (Fri,) studied this question.