Exploring the Land Use Mismatch Phenomenon in the Urbanization Process: A Temporal–Spatial Perspective from Urban China

Improving urban land use efficiency is a critical pathway toward sustainable urban development, particularly in large countries undergoing rapid urbanization such as China. However, significant disparities in land use efficiency exist across cities, largely due to differences in economic development, resource endowments, and governance practices. These disparities highlight the necessity of conducting a systematic spatiotemporal assessment of land use mismatch at the city level to identify regional weaknesses and inform differentiated policy mechanisms. This study extends the land use mismatch (LUM) model, which introduces a supply–demand framework for analyzing the mismatch phenomenon of urban land use. Building on the LUM model, this study innovatively develops a classification system of five mismatch zones across eight construction land types, which provides a more systematic and comprehensive approach to identifying land use mismatch patterns. The empirical analysis is conducted using data from 283 prefecture-level cities in China. The results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in land use mismatch across Chinese cities. Most of the cities in East China generally fall within acceptable mismatch zones, where market mechanisms play a more effective role in land allocation. Cities in Western China exhibit more serious mismatch levels, where policy intervention seems more significant in land use planning. Cities in Central China demonstrate mixed patterns, ranging from acceptable to severe mismatch. The findings further indicate that these disparities are associated not only with economic and geographical differences but also with variations in governance practices, particularly the interaction between policy intervention and market mechanisms. This study introduces a new approach to examining the patterns of land use mismatch and provides evidence-based policy recommendations for cities in different regions to reduce land mismatch and promote more efficient use of urban land.