ABSTRACT Cropland distribution is often shaped by historical cultivation patterns rather than natural suitability, leading to mismatches between actual land use and agricultural production potential. However, their extent and spatial characteristics remain insufficiently understood in the North China Plain, one of China's most important grain‐producing regions. To address this issue, this study developed an integrated framework combining cropland suitability assessment, mismatch identification and management zoning. An optimised MaxEnt model was used to evaluate cropland suitability and a Farmland Utilisation Pressure Index was constructed to support differentiated management of mismatched cropland. Model optimisation substantially improved predictive performance, increasing the AUC from 0.686 to 0.859. High‐suitability areas covered 19.81 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 25.83% of the study area and 84.75% of these areas were already under cultivation. High‐ and moderate‐suitability areas were mainly concentrated in the central, eastern and southern plains. Despite the overall consistency between cropland distribution and suitability patterns, substantial suitability–use mismatches remained. Based on FUPI, mismatched cropland was classified into Retirement, Transition and Protection Zones, covering 1.19 × 10 4 , 1.76 × 10 4 and 2.41 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. This study provides a spatially explicit framework for identifying and regulating cropland suitability–use mismatches and offers scientific support for cropland optimisation and sustainable agricultural land management in the NCP.
Cao et al. (Tue,) studied this question.